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WHO’S HOT: ROSS (W2)
WHO’S NOT: FLC (L2)
GAME OF THE WEEK
KC BEES (3-3) -8 vs ND40 (4-2)
LAST MEETING: KC BEES 156, ND40 85
2008 SERIES:KC 2-0
This is the game of the week. KC is the league’s second highest scoring team, but needs a win to avoid moving to a losing record after last week’s lucky come from behind victory by the Red Oak Sea Snakes (no offense, Ross). ND40 is third in scoring in the league, and sits atop the league standings at 4-2 with Montreal. ND has a big QB advantage with Manning against the hapless Rams. KC’s WR corps of Fitzy and Johnson will be trouble for ND, who doesn’t field a single WR who would start in most 12 team leagues. KC also has the edge at RB with Cedric and Ronnie, although Gore could have a big day for ND. ND will try to ruin KC’s week with second straight MNF come from behind victory, but the Philly defense will fall short.
HAWKEYE COMPARISONS:
ND: Peyton Manning = Chuck Long
KC: Cedric Benson = Nick Bell
STAT ANALYSIS:
KC Bees ND40
Average weekly points 141.2 140.7
95% Confidence Interval on expected future point total 67-215 99-182
Pick: KC minus 8
MONTREAL (4-2) -1 vs BUTTA (3-3)
LAST MEETING: MONTREAL 184, BUTTA 139
2008 SERIES: MONTREAL 2-0
AP #1 MM is tries to avoid a letdown after a huge 200+ point week. Butta tries to jump above .500 with a win this week. Both QBs play against crappy teams, but Butta has the edge with Rodgers this week. MM’s WRs will come up big, though. Moss and Braylon will be solid, but Heinz will have a big day against the Vikes, and could be the difference in this matchup. All four starting RBs in this matchup are playing games away from home. Butta hopes to ride AP home to victory against a Pitt def, but Thomas Jones may be just enough for MM to sneak away with another “W” and stay at AP #1.
HAWKEYE COMPARISONS:
MM: Phillip Rivers = Mark Vlasic
Butta: Nate Kaeding = Nate Kaeding
STAT ANALYSIS:
MM Butta
Average weekly points 153.3 125.8
95% Confidence Interval on expected future point total 72-234 53-199
Pick: MM minus 2
ROSS (3-3) -10 vs JOE LOUIS (3-3)
LAST MEETING: JOE 148, ROSS 98
LAST SEASON SERIES: SPLIT 1-1
Ross comes in with the league’s longest winning streak (W2). JL tries to bounce back from a 90 point showing in Week 6. This matchup is the QB delight of the week: Brady vs. Brees. Both of these guys could ring up 70 fantasy points in a given week and are enough to be the difference in this matchup. We give the edge to Ross and Brady since they are up against a weak TB defense. JL will get a big game from WRs Wayne and Chad 85, and will need it due to Ross’ advantage at RB. If the QBs don’t go too crazy in this one, Ross’ RBs D’Angelo and Turner will be the difference in this matchup. As much as I hate to do this after Ross’ win over KC last week, I have to pick him to move to 4-3.
HAWKEYE COMPARISONS:
JL: Reggie Wayne = Quinn Early
Ross: Tony Gonzalez = Dallas Clark
STAT ANALYSIS:
JL Ross
Average weekly points 133.3 118.5
95% Confidence Interval on expected future point total 56-211 31-206
Pick: Ross minus 10
GUT PICK OF THE WEEK
FLC (2-4) -1 vs TLIC (2-4)
LAST MEETING: FLC 133, TLIC 90
LAST SEASON SERIES: FLC 2-0
These two teams come in hungry for a win. The QB battle will be good with Eli vs. Favre. Eli will be solid; Favre is due for a return to the interception passer that we all know and love. He’s playing at Pitt and Troy Polamalu. The RB battle will be a pretty even one, with LT and Forte cancelling each other out. The difference in this matchup will be the WRs. Can Roddy and Colston outscore TLIC’s Jennings and Steve Smith (the other one)? We think they can. Both teams come in at 2-4; the only thing I can guarantee is that the loser will be in last place in the league. Edge to FLC.
HAWKEYE COMPARISONS:
TLIC: LaDanian Tomlinson = Ronnie Harmon
FLC: Eli Manning = Jim Hartlieb (both are little brothers to a better QB)
STAT ANALYSIS:
TLIC FLC
Average weekly points 123.2 116.2
95% Confidence Interval on expected future point total 75-171 86-146
Pick: FLC minus 1
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